Are Electric Vehicles Already Halfway to Market Dominance?

Electric vehicles have been all the rage in the last few years, but those who have studied EVs and their history know that this isn’t the first go-round at the rodeo for this “new” technology. In fact, EVs were the most popular type of vehicle at the dawn of the vehicle era. In 1899, more EVs were sold than gasoline-powered cars. Albeit, the numbers were small (about 1,500 EVs were sold in that year) but nonetheless EVs were the dominant technology for at least a decade. And then Mr. Ford came along with his Model T and ensured the ascendancy of petroleum-powered cars for the next century.

There were a number of fits and starts in the EV industry, every couple of decades, but at no point were EVs anywhere near as dominant as they were at the dawn of the transportation revolution. Most adults living now are aware of GM’s EV1 and the tawdry history of that vehicle in the 1990s. There was even a movie made about it: Who Killed the Electric Car?

It seems, however, that this latest phase in the development of EVs is likely to be more than a blip in automotive history. EVs have come on strong in the last three years, with dozens of EV designs either on the market today or soon to be. And sales are picking up quickly, albeit from a very modest starting point.

Norway is leading the world in terms of EV sales. In November, EV market share reached a staggering 12 percent. California has reached about 1.2 percent of all cars sold and comprises about one-third of U.S. EV sales.

In terms of the US as a whole, we are fast approaching 1 percent of all sales coming from EVs (pure battery electrics, BEVs, and plug-in hybrid electrics, PHEVs, but excluding hybrid car sales). EVs will comprise about 2/3 of a percent for all light duty car sales in the U.S. in 2013. We’ll easily pass 1 percent in 2014. One percent is still very small — way too small — but it turns out that reaching 1 percent is a really important milestone. In fact, the game may be won when 1 percent is reached.

Huh?

Ray Kurzweil, an American inventor and entrepreneur, discovered the Law of Accelerating Returns by studying numerous technology adoption curves. The classic example concerns computing power. Moore’s Law holds that computing power will double about every two years for the same cost. Sixty years after Gordon Moore, Intel’s former CEO, made this observation, the law holds true, though we’re actually doubling now about every year. Kurzweil discovered, however, that Moore’s Law is just the latest paradigm keeping a much longer trend going, as Figure 1 shows.

Figure 1. Kurzweil on the five paradigms of increasing computing power.

So how can 1 percent of all EV sales suggest in any way that we’re on the road to a world dominated by EVs? Here’s why: 1 percent is halfway between nothing and 100 percent — in terms of doublings. That is, there are seven doublings from the start of growth to 1 percent and seven doublings from 1 to 100 percent. One double is two, which doubled is four, etc.

Kurzweil’s best example of the counterintuitive nature of his law is the Human Genome Project. This was a government-funded effort to decode the entire human genome in about fifteen years. Well, halfway through the project the effort was only at about 1 percent completion. Many observers wrote off the effort as a failure that couldn’t possibly reach its goal. Kurzweil, however, wrote at the time that the game was won because 1 percent was halfway to 100 percent in the terms that actually mattered: the rate of improvement in sequencing technology.

And he was right. The Human Genome Project finished slightly early and helped to bring down the costs of genome sequencing technologies by orders of magnitude, as well as dramatic reductions in the time it takes for sequencing. We can now pay about $1,000 to sequence our own genome in a matter of days.

Applying the Law of Accelerating Returns to EVs

Back to EVs, it seems incredible but the following is a mathematically true statement: if customers continue to buy EVs at the same rate of growth as we’ve seen in the last two years all cars sold in 2020 will be EVs. This is because seven years is seven doublings and seven doublings from 1 percent gets us past 100 percent. Of course, the “if” in my statement is the key. No one should reasonably expect that we’ll see 100 percent rates of growth in EV sales every year through 2020 — we won’t. This rate will surely slow down substantially as various obstacles present themselves. But even if the rate of growth averages “only” 50 percent each year, we would reach 100 percent of all sales by 2026. This won’t happen either, but it is reasonable to expect that a very substantial percentage of all cars sold will be EVs by the mid-2020s. Figure 1 shows the result of various average growth rates over time. Even at 20 percent annual growth EVs comprise almost half of all cars sold by 2034.

Barriers to Adoption

The Law of Accelerating Returns isn’t really a law, of course. There’s nothing inevitable about technology development or adoption curves. If there was, the Betamax video player would be in every household today. While Kurzweil’s data shows that many technologies do follow the traditional S-shaped development curve and continuously improve, the fact remains that the vast majority of new technologies and new ideas don’t become ubiquitous.

So the hard question is: why do some technologies become ubiquitous and some not? And in the case of EVs, are we on the road to ubiquity or are there a number of roadblocks preventing a future in which every garage or street curb has an EV keeping it company?

There are a number of obvious obstacles right now that are keeping sales figures in the low single digits in the U.S., including, among others: 1) lack of widespread awareness about the availability and benefits of EVs; 2) high upfront cost of EVs, driven primarily by battery costs; 3) range anxiety due to insufficiently widespread public charging stations and similar concerns about the speed or cost of charging; 4) grid integration issues arising from so many EVs (though research has already found that the existing US grid could accommodate, primarily through night-time charging, a heckuva lot of EVs); 5) tough competition from other types of vehicles.

I’m going to focus in the rest of this essay on what is probably the most difficult obstacle to overcome, battery costs, because the solution is not simply a matter of throwing money at the problem.

Kurzweil’s Law is a technology improvement law, rather than a technology adoption law, so it’s not directly applicable to adoption rates for EVs. However, it’s indirectly applicable because the adoption rate of EVs is highly dependent on technology improvement; specifically, the rate of improvement of the most expensive (by far) component of EVs — the battery.

Battery costs are already falling rapidly with increased deployment of EVs and other uses for battery technologies. A recent report from McKinsey & Company projected “dramatically” falling prices for batteries by 2020 — to around $200 per kilowatt hour, and $160 by 2025, down from $500-600 at the time the report was written in 2012, and down from about $1,200 in 2009. A 2013 report from Navigant Consulting agrees in general with the McKinsey team, projecting $180 by 2020, down from $500 now.

Navigant also projects a more than ten-fold increase in EV battery production by 2020. If we see the same price drop in this area that we have seen with respect to solar panels — a 20 percent drop with every doubling of production — we can expect a bit more than three 20 percent price drops before 2020. This amounts to a net cost reduction of about 55 percent — less than the drops projected by Navigant and McKinsey, but definitely in the same ballpark. This quick calculation gives a little more confidence that these companies’ projections aren’t outlandish.

The battery price reductions bring the cost premium of an EV to only about $2,000 by 2020, when compared to a comparable conventional auto. This premium can quickly be made back with fuel savings, due to the cost of electricity being so much lower than the cost of gasoline, so the total cost of ownership of EVs will at that point be far less than for conventional vehicles.

In sum, while we may not be on the road to an inevitable “EV in every garage” future just yet, due to a number of persistent obstacles, it seems that we are indeed on the cusp of such inevitability. “Just” seven more doublings and all cars sold will be EVs.

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Hybrid tops annual "Greenest" list of vehicles

The Toyota Prius C led an energy-efficient economy (ACEEE) American Council 15th annual "greenest" car reviews in a list published on January 16th. The compact, which debuted in the US market last year, had a "green score" of 58 in the ACEEE measure of comprehensive eco-performance, the evaluation of the vehicle of 53 miles per gallon (MPG) is reflected, in town and 46 MPG highway. Overall was the list of hybrid electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles (EV) dominated.

Rounding out the top were five Honda 1.8 l plug-in hybrid FIT, Prius Prius and the Honda Civic Hybrid. The Ford focus with a lithium-ion battery on 10th place. The Scion IQ and the Mercedes-Benz Smart ForTwo Coupe were the vehicles only non-hybrid, non-Plug-in to the list.

Fuel consumption for EVs is provided in miles per kilowatt-hour while the rating for plug-in hybrids in MPG for petrol and in miles per kilowatt hour for electric operation is intended. ACEEE is a non-profit organization that acts as a catalyst, energy-efficiency policies, programs, technologies, to promote investments and behaviors. See press release ACEEE.

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Announcing the Apps for Vehicles Challenge

By Patrick B. Davis, Vehicle Technologies program manager

Here at the Energy Department's Vehicle Technologies Program, we’re revved up about the next great smartphone app: yours.

That's why we're launching the Apps for Vehicles Challenge, which is looking for the best business plans, app ideas, and product designs that use open vehicle data to help vehicle owners save fuel, save money, and stay safe.

Improving fuel efficiency is a national priority. With the country spending about $1 billion per day on foreign oil, the Obama Administration spearheaded changes to fuel economy standards that will double fuel efficiency for cars and light trucks by 2025. Automotive manufacturers are working to meet this target, but everyday drivers, businesses, and the public sector can also contribute toward meeting these national goals. For example, the Department of Energy's Vehicle Technologies Program is managing some of the most fascinating research projects and deployment programs in the country to support the cars and trucks of the future. Furthermore, in terms of what individual vehicle owners or fleet managers can do, there is an emerging set of tools that leverage open data to improve safety and fuel efficiency. For the complete story, see the Energy Blog.

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10 Things you do not know electric vehicles

This article is part of the series Energy.gov highlighting the "top things you didn't know about..."

10, Did you know that the average American daily out - and commute less than 30 miles is? With many electric vehicles (EVs) has a range of more than 70 miles a charge they are a reliable and convenient way for Americans, to get from point to point b A for longer trips can a plug-in hybrid EV with an internal combustion engine a good alternative secure be. Both help reduce our dependence on foreign oil, and contribute to a cleaner environment. See the energy 101: video of electric vehicles.

9. The electric vehicle market is growing faster than you might think. More than 7,000 plug - in and all-electric vehicles were sold in October 2012 - so that it the highest monthly electric car sales, date.

8. Currently, there are 13 EV models on the market, and the number continues to rise. Model years 2013 and 2014 will be the manufacturer expected to at least 18 new plug-in hybrid and fully electric vehicles, including the 2014 Chevrolet spark EV and 2013 Fiat 500e both were debut - this week introduced at the Los Angeles Auto Show 2012. The complete history, see the blog post of energy.

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54.5 MPG and beyond: fueling energy-efficient vehicles

For many can refuel your vehicle be disappointing. It is the only activity that quickly eat up dollar by dollar, the consumer of that sum cost disposable income look at. And a large part of this money goes right the tailpipe - only 14-26% of the energy from the fuel is used to move a vehicle on the road.

Fortunately, the Obama administration's new national fuel economy will improve standards for passenger vehicle efficiency and save Americans at the pump, while reducing our dependence on foreign oil and the US economy is growing.

Completed in August, the new standards build on first fuel economy that rises the Obama administration — the first increase since 1985 - raised, the average fuel economy of passenger cars 35.5 miles per gallon by 2016. Under the new rules, passenger cars and light commercial vehicles, trucks built a model years 2017-2025 industry average are expected to fuel efficiency to reach equivalents of 54.5 miles per gallon by the year 2025 - the efficiency of the cars on the road today almost to double. The complete history, see the blog post of energy.

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New quick charging standard released for electric vehicles

Volt could charge cars such as the Chevy faster due to a new standard for fast-charge.
Credit card: GM
A newly released technical standard could hybrid to cut loading time for plug ins (PHEV) and electric vehicle (EV) of eight hours as short as 20 minutes. SAE International, a global industry Association announced its long-awaited voluntary standard on a consensus with industry experts and Department of energy national laboratories was developed, approved and published on 15 October.

The standard is the future of the survey technology and smart grid interaction for SAE International. The standard helps reduce the time spent at public charging stations, a consumers and consumers to travel before need to calculate distances in its PHEVs and EVs. Ford Motor Company, which is involved in the development of standards, a statement to praise the standard, because it extends published and is compatible with the existing electric vehicle recharge standard by all automakers in the United States employs. See press release SAE International, a standards summary , and the Ford Motor Company press release.

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Energy Department Announces $2.5 Million for Fuel Cell Baggage Vehicles

The Energy Department announced on April 25 up to $2.5 million in funding is available this year to demonstrate and deploy fuel cell electric vehicles for transporting passenger baggage at major U.S. airports. Up to three projects selected for funding will demonstrate first-generation, fuel cell-powered baggage-towing tractors under real-world operating conditions, and will collect and analyze data to test their performance and cost-effectiveness. The funding will help industry bring advanced fuel cell technologies into emerging markets. It will also provide airlines and airports with new choices for ground support operations that cut energy costs, air pollution, and petroleum use.

The Energy Department seeks applicants to demonstrate and test the performance and economic viability of advanced fuel cell systems for up to three years. The 50% cost-shared projects will supply both information on fuel cell system operation and data on the economics of these vehicles to the Hydrogen Secure Data Center at the DOE's National Renewable Energy Laboratory for analysis and comparison. Data will be collected from actual airport operations so that engineers and economic analysts can assess the technology's performance, durability, and cost-effectiveness under the real-world conditions of commercial airports. Conclusions will be drawn from the data to evaluate the commercial viability of this fuel cell application, and the data will be shared with fuel cell manufacturers, helping to improve their designs and optimize overall performance and costs. See the DOE Progress Alert and the funding opportunity announcement.

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Plan of the Coalition deals to speed up adoption of Plug-In electric vehicles

Consumers, the Nissan leaf and other EVs available under one of the PEV dialogue group proposed plan found.
Credit card: Nissan

A coalition of automakers, utilities, environmental groups, government officials and DOE on March 13 described joint recommendations for speeding up the adoption of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) nationwide. The PEV dialogue group convened its recommendations will be presented last year by the Center for climate and energy solutions (C2ES), an event of Washington, D.C..

The report which provides Group, a plan of action to integrate plug-in electric vehicles with the U.S. power grid, overwhelm a roadmap for a concerted action of the public and private sectors to ensure that PEV comfortably can connect owner in their cars without the grid. It is nationwide recommended steps to ensure compatible regulatory approaches to balance public and private investment in the charging infrastructure and better consumer information on PEVs. Support in the coming months C2ES DOE clean cities funded coalitions working in dozens of communities across the country to the local PEV to develop deployment plans.

C2ES works with the PEV-dialogue group and others to promote the implementation of the plan. Last year, nearly 18,000 PEVs in the United States were sold; in the next year or two, all the big automakers want to have models on the road. Some PEVs have how the Nissan leaf rely completely on battery operated, during the Chevy Volt and other backup to extend engines enough their driving. Distribution of PEVs, which use little or even no petrol, can significantly reduce U.S. reliance on imported oil and reduce harmful tailpipe emissions. See press release C2ES.

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As Electric Vehicles Take Charge, Costs Power Down

By Patrick B. Davis Vehicle Technologies Program Manager

The record number of electric-drive vehicles on the floor of Detroit's North American International Auto Show, which ends January 22, sends a clear message—the American auto industry is dedicated to driving innovation and delivering advanced vehicles to consumers here and around the world. We’re working with them every step of the way to help make that vision a reality. One of the keys to translating the trade show excitement around electric vehicles into widespread consumer adoption is driving down costs, and one area that continues to be a focus across the industry is reducing the cost of electric motors.

In addition to further research and development, increasing the domestic manufacturing capacity of electric motors is one of the keys to accomplishing this. Upping capacity will not only help meet growing consumer demand but also help drive down the cost of both the motors and the vehicles that use them. To help achieve this goal, DOE has undertaken a variety of projects with industry partners to find innovative ways to design and manufacture electric motors. On one such project, the department teamed with Delphi Automotive Systems in an effort to reduce the cost, size, and weight of electric motors by using patented semiconductor packaging technology. The result of this cost-sharing partnership is new packaging that is smaller, lighter weight and allows more power to be produced than previous methods. Read the full story on DOE's Energy Blog.

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Alternative fuel powered vehicles roles in Detroit Auto Show

2013 Ford Fusion has three versions: petrol, hybrid and an entirely new plug-in hybrid, that says Ford gets more than the equivalent of 100 MPG.
IMG credit: Ford Motor Company

Alternative fuel powered vehicles parts spotlight at the annual North American International Auto show - also known as 2012 Detroit auto show - that on 7 January in Detroit, Michigan. Ford, General Motors, Nissan and Honda car manufacturers are hybrids or electric vehicles (EV) and concept cars. The card runs through January 22.

In his hometown made his debut of the Ford Motor Company the new fusion, say that the model was the first wagon, gasoline, hybrid and plug-in-to offer hybrid versions for the best fuel economy. Also on his home turf, General Motors Corporation code 130R be issued concept, a Coupe designed to win back a turbo engine with GM technology works, you shut down the engine at stops, and braking. Nissan showed his s NV200 concept, which with the train from its Nissan leaf EV installed in Nissan NV200 multi-purpose van has. And Honda unveiled its 2013 accord statement that the accord sedan with a new two-engine-plug-in hybrid system, which constantly moves through three modes: full electric - and petrol electric direct drive. See press releases of Ford, General Motors, Nissan and Honda.

In addition, the Detroit Economic Club on 11 January address DOE its support to energy Secretary Steven Chu for U.S. auto industry innovation highlights. DOE released a new video, "energy 101: electric vehicle", which shows the advantages of EVS, including improved fuel efficiency, reduction of emissions and lower maintenance costs. See the DOE press release (copyright) and YouTube energy 101 video to see.

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DOE Awards 7 million for storage technologies in fuel cell vehicles

This is an excerpt from EERE network news, a weekly electronic newsletter.

DOE on 12 December more than 7 million $ within four projects in California, Oregon and Washington, the hydrogen storage technologies for use in electric fuel-cell vehicles develop. The 3-year projects will help, cost and improve the performance of hydrogen storage systems through the development of innovative materials and advanced containers. DOE is committed to help advanced fuel cell technology research, bringing domestic automakers more electric fuel cell vehicles on the market.

The selected organizations provide close to $2 million in costs for storage systems to reduce the cost of compressed hydrogen leading projects, and develop materials for hydrogen storage advanced. Compressed hydrogen storage provides a short-term way to commercialization and lower costs for compressed tank systems availability and adoption speed up their market. Advanced materials-based storage hydrogen technologies enable more efficient memory on lower prints current compressed hydrogen tanks allow.

Among the projects DOE's Pacific Northwest used national laboratory a coordinated approach to reduce the costs associated with compressed hydrogen storage systems by focusing on the improvement of the carbon fiber composite materials and the development and production of hydrogen storage tanks. HRL laboratories, LLC, Malibu, California, explores an innovative approach to the hydrogen storage with altered fluids to absorb efficiently and can release hydrogen gas. DOE's Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and partners will use a theory guided approach to synthesize new materials with high hydrogen adsorption capacity. And a tied under the direction of the University of Oregon, including the DOE's Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, develop and test promising new materials for hydrogen storage. The proposed chemical hydrogen storage materials could liquid fuel and regeneration of hydrogen storage material, temperature and pressure ranges for both onboard mobile and stationary fuel cell applications suitable activate. See the DOE press release (copyright) and the fuel cell technologies program Web site.

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