China electric vehicle manufacturer relies on Government support

I've got a lot of attention before a few days U.S. electric vehicles (EV) sensation Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), so it's only fair that I by writing about China's home-made EV superstar BYD-up follow-up (OTC: BYDDF;) HKEx: 1211; Shenzhen: 002594), which recently published quarterly figures, which look quite disappointing. The only things that look like something encouraging in this latest report are the fact that billionaire investor he bought that in 2008 its 10-percent stake in the company to keep Warren Buffett, still, and that BYD is lucrative. But also the gains strong support from Beijing in its programme to promote clean-energy vehicle development.

If I had to describe BYDs recent performances in a single thought, I'd say that pretty good pilot programs set up this company for its EVs but has found it difficult to translate these programs in large companies. In the last three years, BYD has announced a steady sequence of such pilot programs in a variety of markets, from Western Europe, the United States and Latin America, as well as in its home market of China. But with a few rare exceptions, we need to have one of these programs turn you into the major orders that BYD has its EV program long term profitable to make.

Everything, what say we take a closer look of BYDs latest quarterly results, to show its profit largely evaporated in the first three months of the year. The company reported a first quarter net profit of around 12 million Yuan, or just over $2 million, which was 90 per cent compared to the previous year. This is quite a small figure for a company whose Umsatz amounted to nearly 12 billion yuan for the quarter was down a more modest 9 percent.

BYD reported by 98 million Yuan it received Government grants in the quarter which means that it would have almost certainly lost money, without this support. Of course not we can subtract that amount from its total profit directly, but I think it is fair to say that the company help would have reported a loss of 50 million Yuan or more without this Government.

BYD's Hong Kong traded shares fell 2.8 percent before the report came, although some the reason the latest trading session got back on Friday. The stock has over the last year and a half, more than tripling since October 2012 on enthusiasm about the EV program actually collected anything. But I suspect that this latest disappointing result could force investors to recognize the company's electric dreams materialize are not, as hoped, and could a mark the beginning of wider selloff, the stock drop by a third or more in the next few months could see.

BYD is in the difficult position of waiting on the EV business to launch, fruits as its older battery and traditional gas-powered car companies show signs of aging. BYD earlier said it will leave the gas powered car business altogether by 2015 as the future in electric vehicles. The company also announced a major plan a year ago, to raise up to $500 million by issuing new shares in a bid to shore up its cash position.

I mostly excited about BYD everytime wrote it a new EV pilot, as such programs announced, to test the technology before larger orders are a necessary first step for customers. But the fact that we some large orders appropriate means until probably three years later on, that many of these pilot programs were not as smooth as BYD had hoped and maybe the buyer doesn't see how the technology. The not sure bode well for the future of the company, which means that BYD Government support its bottom line for the rest of this year and possibly in 2015 could depend on.

Bottom line: BYD's latest results show his EV sales are not accelerated, as fast as planned and it will support its bottom line depending on Government subsidies for the rest of this year.

This blog was originally released on young's China business blog and was published with permission.

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Are Electric Vehicles Already Halfway to Market Dominance?

Electric vehicles have been all the rage in the last few years, but those who have studied EVs and their history know that this isn’t the first go-round at the rodeo for this “new” technology. In fact, EVs were the most popular type of vehicle at the dawn of the vehicle era. In 1899, more EVs were sold than gasoline-powered cars. Albeit, the numbers were small (about 1,500 EVs were sold in that year) but nonetheless EVs were the dominant technology for at least a decade. And then Mr. Ford came along with his Model T and ensured the ascendancy of petroleum-powered cars for the next century.

There were a number of fits and starts in the EV industry, every couple of decades, but at no point were EVs anywhere near as dominant as they were at the dawn of the transportation revolution. Most adults living now are aware of GM’s EV1 and the tawdry history of that vehicle in the 1990s. There was even a movie made about it: Who Killed the Electric Car?

It seems, however, that this latest phase in the development of EVs is likely to be more than a blip in automotive history. EVs have come on strong in the last three years, with dozens of EV designs either on the market today or soon to be. And sales are picking up quickly, albeit from a very modest starting point.

Norway is leading the world in terms of EV sales. In November, EV market share reached a staggering 12 percent. California has reached about 1.2 percent of all cars sold and comprises about one-third of U.S. EV sales.

In terms of the US as a whole, we are fast approaching 1 percent of all sales coming from EVs (pure battery electrics, BEVs, and plug-in hybrid electrics, PHEVs, but excluding hybrid car sales). EVs will comprise about 2/3 of a percent for all light duty car sales in the U.S. in 2013. We’ll easily pass 1 percent in 2014. One percent is still very small — way too small — but it turns out that reaching 1 percent is a really important milestone. In fact, the game may be won when 1 percent is reached.

Huh?

Ray Kurzweil, an American inventor and entrepreneur, discovered the Law of Accelerating Returns by studying numerous technology adoption curves. The classic example concerns computing power. Moore’s Law holds that computing power will double about every two years for the same cost. Sixty years after Gordon Moore, Intel’s former CEO, made this observation, the law holds true, though we’re actually doubling now about every year. Kurzweil discovered, however, that Moore’s Law is just the latest paradigm keeping a much longer trend going, as Figure 1 shows.

Figure 1. Kurzweil on the five paradigms of increasing computing power.

So how can 1 percent of all EV sales suggest in any way that we’re on the road to a world dominated by EVs? Here’s why: 1 percent is halfway between nothing and 100 percent — in terms of doublings. That is, there are seven doublings from the start of growth to 1 percent and seven doublings from 1 to 100 percent. One double is two, which doubled is four, etc.

Kurzweil’s best example of the counterintuitive nature of his law is the Human Genome Project. This was a government-funded effort to decode the entire human genome in about fifteen years. Well, halfway through the project the effort was only at about 1 percent completion. Many observers wrote off the effort as a failure that couldn’t possibly reach its goal. Kurzweil, however, wrote at the time that the game was won because 1 percent was halfway to 100 percent in the terms that actually mattered: the rate of improvement in sequencing technology.

And he was right. The Human Genome Project finished slightly early and helped to bring down the costs of genome sequencing technologies by orders of magnitude, as well as dramatic reductions in the time it takes for sequencing. We can now pay about $1,000 to sequence our own genome in a matter of days.

Applying the Law of Accelerating Returns to EVs

Back to EVs, it seems incredible but the following is a mathematically true statement: if customers continue to buy EVs at the same rate of growth as we’ve seen in the last two years all cars sold in 2020 will be EVs. This is because seven years is seven doublings and seven doublings from 1 percent gets us past 100 percent. Of course, the “if” in my statement is the key. No one should reasonably expect that we’ll see 100 percent rates of growth in EV sales every year through 2020 — we won’t. This rate will surely slow down substantially as various obstacles present themselves. But even if the rate of growth averages “only” 50 percent each year, we would reach 100 percent of all sales by 2026. This won’t happen either, but it is reasonable to expect that a very substantial percentage of all cars sold will be EVs by the mid-2020s. Figure 1 shows the result of various average growth rates over time. Even at 20 percent annual growth EVs comprise almost half of all cars sold by 2034.

Barriers to Adoption

The Law of Accelerating Returns isn’t really a law, of course. There’s nothing inevitable about technology development or adoption curves. If there was, the Betamax video player would be in every household today. While Kurzweil’s data shows that many technologies do follow the traditional S-shaped development curve and continuously improve, the fact remains that the vast majority of new technologies and new ideas don’t become ubiquitous.

So the hard question is: why do some technologies become ubiquitous and some not? And in the case of EVs, are we on the road to ubiquity or are there a number of roadblocks preventing a future in which every garage or street curb has an EV keeping it company?

There are a number of obvious obstacles right now that are keeping sales figures in the low single digits in the U.S., including, among others: 1) lack of widespread awareness about the availability and benefits of EVs; 2) high upfront cost of EVs, driven primarily by battery costs; 3) range anxiety due to insufficiently widespread public charging stations and similar concerns about the speed or cost of charging; 4) grid integration issues arising from so many EVs (though research has already found that the existing US grid could accommodate, primarily through night-time charging, a heckuva lot of EVs); 5) tough competition from other types of vehicles.

I’m going to focus in the rest of this essay on what is probably the most difficult obstacle to overcome, battery costs, because the solution is not simply a matter of throwing money at the problem.

Kurzweil’s Law is a technology improvement law, rather than a technology adoption law, so it’s not directly applicable to adoption rates for EVs. However, it’s indirectly applicable because the adoption rate of EVs is highly dependent on technology improvement; specifically, the rate of improvement of the most expensive (by far) component of EVs — the battery.

Battery costs are already falling rapidly with increased deployment of EVs and other uses for battery technologies. A recent report from McKinsey & Company projected “dramatically” falling prices for batteries by 2020 — to around $200 per kilowatt hour, and $160 by 2025, down from $500-600 at the time the report was written in 2012, and down from about $1,200 in 2009. A 2013 report from Navigant Consulting agrees in general with the McKinsey team, projecting $180 by 2020, down from $500 now.

Navigant also projects a more than ten-fold increase in EV battery production by 2020. If we see the same price drop in this area that we have seen with respect to solar panels — a 20 percent drop with every doubling of production — we can expect a bit more than three 20 percent price drops before 2020. This amounts to a net cost reduction of about 55 percent — less than the drops projected by Navigant and McKinsey, but definitely in the same ballpark. This quick calculation gives a little more confidence that these companies’ projections aren’t outlandish.

The battery price reductions bring the cost premium of an EV to only about $2,000 by 2020, when compared to a comparable conventional auto. This premium can quickly be made back with fuel savings, due to the cost of electricity being so much lower than the cost of gasoline, so the total cost of ownership of EVs will at that point be far less than for conventional vehicles.

In sum, while we may not be on the road to an inevitable “EV in every garage” future just yet, due to a number of persistent obstacles, it seems that we are indeed on the cusp of such inevitability. “Just” seven more doublings and all cars sold will be EVs.

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Electric cars are cleaner today and tomorrow will receive only the cleaning lady

Uncovering a fraud is uniquely satisfying, which is perhaps why news outlets continue to provide electric car deniers with a platform to proclaim they aren’t as green as they appear. But close examination reveals the latest round of skeptics to be lacking in substance. Numerous peer-reviewed articles have reached the same conclusion — from cradle to grave, electric cars are the cleanest vehicles on the road today. And unlike cars that rely on oil, the production of which is only getting dirtier over time, the environmental benefits of electric cars will continue to improve as old coal plants are replaced with cleaner sources and manufacturing becomes more efficient as it scales up to meet growing consumer demand.

“Did you account for the pollution from the electricity it takes to power the vehicles?”

This question has been asked and answered. Using today’s average American electricity mix of natural gas, coal, nuclear, hydro, wind, geothermal, and solar, an electric car emits half the amount of harmful carbon pollution per mile as the average new vehicle. In states with cleaner mixes, such as California, it’s only a quarter as much. To find out how clean your electric car would be today, plug your zip code into the EPA’s “Beyond Tailpipe Emissions Calculator.” Those benefits will only improve as the electric grid becomes cleaner over time.

Before NRDC began advocating for vehicle electrification, we did our own homework, publishing a two-volume report in partnership with the Electric Power Research Institute. The work took almost two years and concluded that a long-term shift to the use of electricity as a transportation fuel provides substantial reductions in carbon pollution and air quality benefits.

It’s essential to take a long view when examining vehicle electrification because the electric grid doesn’t stand still. Since the time we published that report, the EPA has adopted power plant standards for mercury and other air toxics, ozone-forming emissions, fine particulate pollution, soot and coal ash, proposed standards for greenhouse gases from new power plants, and has been directed by the president to adopt greenhouse gas standards for existing plants. Meanwhile, twenty-nine states have adopted renewable energy targets to reduce emissions. Driving on renewable electricity is virtually emissions-free.

“Did you account for the resources it takes to build the cars?”

Producing an electric car today requires more resources than producing a conventional vehicle, generally due to the large batteries. However, comparing the efficiency of relatively nascent and small scale electric vehicle manufacturing to the efficiency of conventional automobile production, which has benefited from more than a century of learning-by-doing, is misleading. Automakers are racing to save money and materials through recycling and more efficient production. Those who win the race will win the market.

Even with today’s technology, on a lifecycle basis, the electric car is still the cleanest option available. Higher emissions from manufacturing are more than offset by the substantial benefits of driving on electricity. We examined six peer-reviewed academic studies and found that in every case, electric vehicles win by a substantial margin, with estimates ranging from 28 to 53 percent lower crade-to-grave emissions than conventional vehicles today.

Opponents often rely upon the original version of a Norwegian study (Hawkins 2012), which has much higher estimates of emissions associated with the production of electric cars. Those skeptics generally cherry-pick from the original version of that article, and ignore the fact it was corrected post-publication, resulting in its estimate of the comparative emissions benefit rising from 22 percent to 28 percent. In other words, even the source relied upon by skeptics shows a substantial lifecycle advantage for electric cars. The Norwegian study finds the lowest benefit relative to the other articles examined partially because it includes an estimate of emissions associated with the disposal of advanced battery materials that is higher than other studies, which brings us to the next question:

“What about mining and disposing of the materials needed to make the batteries?”

First off, there is no shortage of the materials needed to make advanced vehicle batteries. A recent article in the Journal of Industrial Ecology concludes, “even with a rapid and widespread adoption of electric vehicles powered by lithium-ion batteries, lithium resources are sufficient to support demand until at least the end of this century.” Another analysis of the trade constraints associated with the global lithium market came to a similar conclusion, and noted that even a “five-fold increase of lithium price would not impact the price of battery packs.” Furthermore, companies like Simbol Materials are already finding innovative ways to acquire lithium by harvesting materials from the brine of geothermal power plants — no mining required.

Secondly, advanced vehicle batteries are unlikely to be simply thrown away; they’re too valuable. Even once they’re no longer suitable for automotive use, they retain about 80 percent of their capacity and can be re-purposed to provide grid energy storage to facilitate the integration of variable renewable resources, such as wind and solar. Automotive batteries can also be re-purposed to support the electrical grid at the neighborhood level, preventing the need to invest in costly distribution system equipment. Pacific Gas & Electric plans to use money saved through the strategic deployment of used battery packs in neighborhoods throughout Northern and Central California to provide electric car drivers with rebates to reduce the purchase price of new electric cars.

Finally, those batteries that aren’t re-purposed will likely be recycled. Conventional vehicle manufacturing is one of the most efficient industries in the world — around 95 percent of vehicle parts are recycled, reducing the energy needed to make more parts. It is worth noting that conventional lead-acid car batteries are consistently the most recycled product for which the EPA provides data, with a recycling rate of 96 percent. Advanced battery recycling could cut associated emissions in half, according to a 2012 study from researchers at Argonne National Laboratory. Companies are already investing in such technologies.

In summary, a sustained and serious examination of the cradle-to-grave impacts of electric cars reveals they are the cleanest option available today, and that the environmental benefits of vehicle electrification will only increase over time. That’s not only good news for the eco-conscious, but for any consumer interested in driving on a cleaner fuel at a price equivalent to buck-a-gallon gasoline. For more, see Real Oil Independence: Buck-a-Gallon Electricity for Life.

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Listen: Electric vehicle economy - can "Recharge" by the Sun?

In just ten years, hybrids and full electric vehicles (EVs) by quirky cereals have gone transport mobiles to mainstream commuter. A type of electric vehicle offers almost all the major automotive manufacturers and sales are constantly increasing. But are economically sound road EVs of a State-sponsored fad or the future? And rooftop solar is useful as a source of energy for your car?

Have questions for Barry? In the comments to share, and they can be answered in the next episode.
On this week energy renewable energy world show, we explore these issues with our special guest, Pete Levy, founder of IntelliChoice, the automobile inventory software experts. As Pete EV bought, he asked me some basic questions about solar and EVs. After we crunched the numbers became very clear that some slightly cheaper than gas cars, EVs with the economy are still compelling, as gas prices rise and solar power is cheaper. To turn off show this week and to figure out, if one is EV in your near future.

About the energy show

As energy costs consume more and more of our hard-earned dollars, we start really pay attention as a consumer. But we caught up with $5 / gallon gas prices, $200 / month electric bill and $500 heating costs is to resign. There are literally hundreds of products, tricks, and techniques that we can use to dramatically reduce these costs - very cost effective.
The energy show on renewable energy world is a weekly 20 minutes podcast, which offers to reduce tips and advice, your home and energy consumption. Each week we cover subjects that can help reduce your energy bill explain new products and technologies in plain English and cut through the hype, so that you can make intelligent and cost-effective energy decisions.

About your host
Barry Cinnamon is a longtime supporter of renewable energy and is a widely recognized expert solar. In 2001 he founded Akeena solar - she grew to the largest national residential solar installer from the middle of the last decade with more than 10,000 roofing customers coast to coast. He collaborates to create solar Westinghouse Westinghouse in the year 2010, and sold the company in the year 2012.

His pioneering work to reduce costs on the rooftop solar power systems include Andalay, the first solar panel with built-in racking, earthing and cabling; the first UL listed AC solar panel; and the first fully "plug and play" AC solar panel. His current efforts focus on reducing soft costs for solar power systems, cause the system rates against double from Germany, in the United States.
Although Barry may be known for his outstanding work in the solar industry, he has hands-on experience with a variety of energy-saving technologies. He makes residential energy audits since the days of punch cards, one of the first ground source heat pumps in the early 1980s developed and always adheres to the laws of thermodynamics.

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Tesla battery charger for US transcontinental electric vehicle range add

Tesla Motors Inc. is building a network of fast-charging stations, owner of his luxury electric cars drive transcontinental this year with equipment able to repower in 20 to 30 minutes to leave them.
The automaker, which this year has tripled in value, also the number of solar-powered compressor stations is tripling by the end of next month so that model S owners can drive cross country sedan, said Tesla in a statement yesterday. The goal is to increase the size and the benefits of the network, Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk said in a conference call yesterday.""We are not only geography add, we are the density on well-traveled routes add", musk said. "Will take all of Los Angeles to New York only the compressor network."

Tesla needs a wider network of charging stations to customers through California and the northeastern United States, where it now refuelling spots appeal. Without such stations, Tesla drivers through an estimated 265-mile are limited (426 km) range from a single battery charge.
The first group of new stations, it is added in California; between Vancouver, Seattle and Portland, Oregon; Austin, Texas, Dallas; Illinois; and Colorado, the company said. You cost about $300,000, including solar panels, said musk.

"Six months Tesla compressor will most of the major areas of the Metro in the United States and Canada network connection," said Tesla in the statement yesterday.
"Alleviate concerns"

Tesla, based in Palo Alto, California, rose 0.3 per cent to $104,95 at the end of yesterday in New York. Tesla has compared won index 210 percent this year with an increase of 16 percent for the Russell 1000.
Now, owners said nine stations free electricity for model S and the company plans to have stations for "Almost the entire population of the United States and Canada until next year," Tesla in the statement. The electric car manufacturer previous target 100 stations by 2015 happens now "twice as fast as originally planned," musk said on the call.

"I think that more Superchargers helps to relieve range anxiety concerns, so it's probably a sensible use of cash", Ben Schuman, analyst at Pacific Crest securities in Portland, said the prices Tesla sector perform. "It's hard to argue that Tesla owners benefit more charging infrastructure does not."
The announcement by musk, who is Tesla's largest shareholder, follows a series of events this month, put the Tesla of the most financial security since its inception a decade before.

First win
The carmaker first quarter profit followed a top rating from consumer reports for the model S and a stock price surge. Creates an opportunity for $1 billion from the sale of equity and debt capital to increase investor demand and U.S. Department of energy be loan nine years early retirement.

While Tesla in the premium segment car works, there as assets of the company improve, Tom Turrentine said Director of the California Energy Commission plug-in-hybrid & electric vehicle Research Center at the University of California, Davis, certain "Spillover" effect for all plug ins and electric vehicles.
"This makes electric and electric cars cool, gives them some cachet," Turrentine said. "The free network is probably a relatively small cost for Tesla, but it carries a big, positive story."

Charging stations
The carmaker, named after the inventor Nikola Tesla began after the Chargers open Tesla's Web site last year, including six on California highways and three in Connecticut and Delaware.

Currently, it allows a car at home, be repowered in a fraction of the time, provide for 150 miles of driving range in about 30 minutes with current flows at about 400 volts. Fully recharge a model S, price of $69,900, takes up to eight hours with a 240-volt home download system.
With 100 stations, revealed Tesla cross-country highways including Interstate 80, Interstate 90, which runs from Seattle to Boston, from San Francisco to Teaneck, New Jersey, stretches with around 20 stations each if they are placed every 150 miles. Interstate 75, from Sault Sainte Marie, Michigan, Fort Lauderdale, Florida, in the vicinity of lead may be about 12 stations.

At 150 miles per charge a Tesla driver covered the distance of from Los Angeles to New York with intermediate stops at less than 20 charging stations, depending on the route. A driver of a conventional car with a 400 km range could make the drive with only seven tanks of gas.
Chargers everywhere

"Tesla continues to make progress in reducing the anxiety of range anxiety for consumers who hesitate to buy an electric car", said Alec Gutierrez, an Irvine, California - based senior analyst at Kelley Blue Book. "Is built up a network nationwide, consumers can't wait several hours for their vehicles to recharge requires, it is still consumers to purchase a stay at the edge and more mainstream vehicles."
The ability to drive an electric car coast to coast is not so much as standard charger from public to make more ubiquitous said Don Anair, Research Director for the clean vehicles program of the Union of concerned scientists in Berkeley, California.

"Zombie Apocalypse"

"Most people don't go that far from home on a regular basis, but want to know that they not problems with their vehicles under normal circumstances", Anair said.

Use of Tesla's compressor is fitted as standard with high-end versions that have the model S, a 85-kilowatt-hour battery pack and are priced from $79,900. The Chargers can with a 60-kilowatt-hour battery pack as a $2,000 option.

Owner repower installed for free their cars at the stations powered by solar panels and maintained by SolarCity Corp., where musk is also the Chairman and biggest investor.

While not all Superchargers first receive energy from solar panels, this function in the long term is added to musk said yesterday. You batteries store electricity and be completely from the mains of the electrical transmission, also have, he said.

Drivers will use the stations even with "Zombie Apocalypse", he said.

Network charging voltage for the time being this is a novelty for some wealthy model S owners more Turrentine said.

"In reality are many people who use it are people who would normally fly in their personal jets," Turrentine said. "they can now between Palo Alto and L.A. or Las to Vegas and then tweet about it."

Copyright 2013 Bloomberg

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10 Things you do not know electric vehicles

This article is part of the series Energy.gov highlighting the "top things you didn't know about..."

10, Did you know that the average American daily out - and commute less than 30 miles is? With many electric vehicles (EVs) has a range of more than 70 miles a charge they are a reliable and convenient way for Americans, to get from point to point b A for longer trips can a plug-in hybrid EV with an internal combustion engine a good alternative secure be. Both help reduce our dependence on foreign oil, and contribute to a cleaner environment. See the energy 101: video of electric vehicles.

9. The electric vehicle market is growing faster than you might think. More than 7,000 plug - in and all-electric vehicles were sold in October 2012 - so that it the highest monthly electric car sales, date.

8. Currently, there are 13 EV models on the market, and the number continues to rise. Model years 2013 and 2014 will be the manufacturer expected to at least 18 new plug-in hybrid and fully electric vehicles, including the 2014 Chevrolet spark EV and 2013 Fiat 500e both were debut - this week introduced at the Los Angeles Auto Show 2012. The complete history, see the blog post of energy.

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New quick charging standard released for electric vehicles

Volt could charge cars such as the Chevy faster due to a new standard for fast-charge.
Credit card: GM
A newly released technical standard could hybrid to cut loading time for plug ins (PHEV) and electric vehicle (EV) of eight hours as short as 20 minutes. SAE International, a global industry Association announced its long-awaited voluntary standard on a consensus with industry experts and Department of energy national laboratories was developed, approved and published on 15 October.

The standard is the future of the survey technology and smart grid interaction for SAE International. The standard helps reduce the time spent at public charging stations, a consumers and consumers to travel before need to calculate distances in its PHEVs and EVs. Ford Motor Company, which is involved in the development of standards, a statement to praise the standard, because it extends published and is compatible with the existing electric vehicle recharge standard by all automakers in the United States employs. See press release SAE International, a standards summary , and the Ford Motor Company press release.

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Pink Green: how to ignite the second electric revolution

The electronics industry is to build good things. This is how it solves problems. Is there a danger of blackouts? Develop a new natural gas-fired plant. Concerned about climate change? Wind and solar to build. Does electricity cost too much? How to install a transmission line import cheaper makes.

But build-solution provides only half of the equation in the new world of the smart grid. The other half, the part that is to solve-without building the industry, stumps.

Tried smart-grid rather than add more power, maximum efficiency of the system by changing the way we consume electricity to rings.  But it turns out, try to direct human energy makes cat behavior look easy drive. Pay attention to people of their energy consumption experiment utilities and private companies with tantalizing gadgets and social motivations.  So far, success is minimal.  Thomas Edison's light bulb is want none of us for the last 100 years so a complete success, to turn it off.

So what will it take?

Pink, best-selling author of the Edison Foundation saw recently outside the industry for some answers, inviting Dan of "drive: the surprising truth about what motivates us" last month makes people speak 2.0 Conference in Washington, D.C.

Consumer motivation has become a common Conference theme. But pink presentation was different. He resigned and took a broader view and asked: how we motivate people who try to motivate the consumers? Pink calls this "Science like people do extraordinary things."

Energy creative thinkers need to ignite the "second electric revolution", Rosa bust of their intellectual silos. But smart grid a particularly difficult problem for them is because the industry is trying to invent devices, not ask consumers.  The grid needs to use the gadgets and consumer.  But consumers would think rather you to their next iTunes download, or where to buy the tastiest strawberries. How to get want consumers a smart plug or only so much energy display home?  Some in the industry say that smart-grid is doomed to fail, because it need not demand of private households, but the energy industry is born.

Pink has a different view. He asked the audience to raise their hands if they have an iPad. Half have. Then, he asked how many of them knew that she needed one two years ago. Only a hand went.

Apple's genius lines in it; his ability, which give it not knowing world lacked. Can the energy industry with smart grid? It must first recognize that this is more likely to find a skill in artists as engineers. "I think that the cognitive skills of the artist are today the most important cognitive skills in the economy," said Rosa. "We need scientists who think like artists and artists who think like scientists."

Also have the electrical industry to rethink the kind and way creative employees. "It turns out much of our intuition about motivation are not quite right," according to pink. In fact, it is downright "Newtonian" to assume that "If you reward a behavior, you get more of it, and if you punish behavior less thereof."

So, forget the great bonus for the ingenious idea.  While people must be paid reasonably well, great bonuses motivate only them, short-term goals, how the amount of quota to achieve. "Igniting the second electric revolution is not easy, is not in the short term, but is complex and in the long term", he said.

So, it gets what creative thinkers move? Leisure, such as Rosa it tells. He cited studies and examples of artists who reach their best work without a Commission and inventor working Nobel front of the clock.  The economy starts to catch on this idea, and some offer a regular day as their inventors and encourages problem-solver will stop their required tasks and work only on something that interests them. Many of these free hours have produced some amazing results, were able to reach the company otherwise.

"Complex industries, such as the complex ecosystems require their, this kind of complex, silo-busting thinking." You will it not by an elaborate system of incentives, but by adjusting of talented employees and getting out of the way to get, "he said."

Perhaps, if Rosa is true, and the electrical industry is monitored, he'll be able ask public in a few years as have many device some amazing energy-saving, which has designed yet nobody, and fly many hands in the air. Maybe then will the light bulb as we know it, eventually to be replaced.

ELISA is a long-time energy writer, whose working can be found at RealEnergyWriters.com

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Plan of the Coalition deals to speed up adoption of Plug-In electric vehicles

Consumers, the Nissan leaf and other EVs available under one of the PEV dialogue group proposed plan found.
Credit card: Nissan

A coalition of automakers, utilities, environmental groups, government officials and DOE on March 13 described joint recommendations for speeding up the adoption of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) nationwide. The PEV dialogue group convened its recommendations will be presented last year by the Center for climate and energy solutions (C2ES), an event of Washington, D.C..

The report which provides Group, a plan of action to integrate plug-in electric vehicles with the U.S. power grid, overwhelm a roadmap for a concerted action of the public and private sectors to ensure that PEV comfortably can connect owner in their cars without the grid. It is nationwide recommended steps to ensure compatible regulatory approaches to balance public and private investment in the charging infrastructure and better consumer information on PEVs. Support in the coming months C2ES DOE clean cities funded coalitions working in dozens of communities across the country to the local PEV to develop deployment plans.

C2ES works with the PEV-dialogue group and others to promote the implementation of the plan. Last year, nearly 18,000 PEVs in the United States were sold; in the next year or two, all the big automakers want to have models on the road. Some PEVs have how the Nissan leaf rely completely on battery operated, during the Chevy Volt and other backup to extend engines enough their driving. Distribution of PEVs, which use little or even no petrol, can significantly reduce U.S. reliance on imported oil and reduce harmful tailpipe emissions. See press release C2ES.

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Ford Focus Electric Vehicle Earns Top EPA Mileage Rating

The Ford Focus Electric has earned a top miles per gallon equivalent rating from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the automaker said.
Credit: Ford

Ford Motor Company announced on March 2 that its new Focus Electric was U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) certified as having a city rating of 110 miles per gallon equivalent (MPGe) and a highway rating of 99 MPGe. The Detroit automaker said that its rating makes it the most fuel-efficient five-passenger car in the United States. The car can travel 76 miles on a single charge. The EPA had not officially posted the numbers at the time of the announcement.

Also, Ford said that the Focus Electric has been certified at a combined rating—city and highway—of 105 MPGe. In the latest published EPA ratings, the 2012 Nissan Leaf has a combined rating of 99 MPGe. General Motors’ 2012 Chevrolet Volt, a plug in hybrid electric vehicle (EV), has a combined gas/electricity rating of 60 MPGe.

Ford said that when it adds the new 2013 Ford Fusion to its line, it would be the world's most fuel-efficient gas- and hybrid-powered midsize sedan. See the Ford press release.

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As Electric Vehicles Take Charge, Costs Power Down

By Patrick B. Davis Vehicle Technologies Program Manager

The record number of electric-drive vehicles on the floor of Detroit's North American International Auto Show, which ends January 22, sends a clear message—the American auto industry is dedicated to driving innovation and delivering advanced vehicles to consumers here and around the world. We’re working with them every step of the way to help make that vision a reality. One of the keys to translating the trade show excitement around electric vehicles into widespread consumer adoption is driving down costs, and one area that continues to be a focus across the industry is reducing the cost of electric motors.

In addition to further research and development, increasing the domestic manufacturing capacity of electric motors is one of the keys to accomplishing this. Upping capacity will not only help meet growing consumer demand but also help drive down the cost of both the motors and the vehicles that use them. To help achieve this goal, DOE has undertaken a variety of projects with industry partners to find innovative ways to design and manufacture electric motors. On one such project, the department teamed with Delphi Automotive Systems in an effort to reduce the cost, size, and weight of electric motors by using patented semiconductor packaging technology. The result of this cost-sharing partnership is new packaging that is smaller, lighter weight and allows more power to be produced than previous methods. Read the full story on DOE's Energy Blog.

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Electric Vehicle and Lithium-ion Battery Investing For Imbeciles

Her 1969 best-seller "the Peter principle" student named Caesare quoted in Laurence Peter and Raymond hull Latin American Innocente, the defendant, "Professor Peter, I am afraid that what I want to know by my studies will be answered." "I do not know if the world is run, by intelligent men who say Americans like you put us on, or from idiots who really mean it." After just the events of recent weeks, think I agree with most of my regular readers that the idiots are steering clear of the ship.
In March of this year, I went at the Geneva Motor Show press day, a chance gave me that up to see cars up close and personal without a struggle of the masses. While I'm generally skeptical when it comes to electric cars, I left Geneva convinced, that which was Fisker karma of the most beautiful car I had ever seen. I promised even my inner geek, I secretly one would for a test drive once that began production. The last remaining mid-October was granted hurdle to the EPO its official fuel economy rating 52 MPGe for the electric field of 32 miles and 20 MPG for gas travels with the 2.0 litre onboard generator powered by.

I was crushed. How could such terrible fuel industry something so gloriously and green review?

The answer, it seems is that when the Karma on a scale it a few hundred pounds more than a Hummer H3 and a few hundred pounds less than a Cadillac Escalade weighs. That's right folks: it's a 5,300 pounds-behemoth, developed ATVM loan guarantees in California with $ 169 million from the Department of energy. While most of the long-term economic benefits from the production of this shocking green monstrosities outsourcing to Finland, at least, that the batteries in the United States from A123 systems (AONE) the car is a $ 23 million investment in Fisker to establish a strategic partnership and the battery supply contract.

If journalists and political experts questioned the appropriateness of the loan guarantee Fisker in question, the DOE says:

"The Fisker loan consists of two parts." In the first part to the Fisker 169 million to support the Fisker Karma developed the tools, equipment and production processes for Fiskers first vehicle, the engineers. The work took place Fisker of U.S. equipment, headquartered in Irvine, California, employs 700 employees and plans to continue setting. While the vehicles even in the Fisker overseas form workshop are mounted, the funding of the Department was used only for the US operations. The money may not be, and was not spent business. "The karma is also an extensive network of hundreds of suppliers in more than a dozen States."

To use to fund specific project jobs in California, while in the long term, jobs in production in Finland is of course create the sophistry taxpayer money. The problematic questions in my mind are:

How many $100,000 Karma must sell Fisker enough profit to 169 million in DOE loan pay back to earn?
A123 must as many battery packs Fisker to sell to, if it wants to recover his 23 million US dollar investment?
Gets just as sexy and expensive the lackluster sales and margins, Motors (TSLA) has carried out from his Roadster Tesla either result even in the remotest possible?
This was clearly a range of offerings from idiots who really mean it negotiated. The most outrageous defense of the penultimate paragraph of that says was part of the DOE:

"Keep in mind that plasma TVs, mobile phones, PCs, and many other common products were fabulously expensive luxury, but quickly became a staple for middle class Americans." "These price declines would be commercial marketing as premium products not have been possible without the scale of the first."

MUMPITZ! I expect that this type of Bafflegab of EVangelicals but not from government officials.

There is no way the electric vehicles always types of cost reductions that we deliver in the information and technology revolution to experience, since the basic scientific completely different. There are to move a 2.65-ton van on the road no Moore's law of physics. There is no Moore's law for electrochemistry. It is no good fairy world production of non-ferrous metals or increase control commodity prices. But discussing science, supply chains and energy instead of rational, reasonable questions we have with the DOE's path-folding mirror

A little over three years ago I started cautioning readers that Ener1 (HEVV.PK) was a disaster in the making. My cautions got more strident when Ener1 made a substantial venture capital investment in Th!nk Motors to strengthen their strategic relationship and retain a battery supply contract that was jeopardized by Th!nk's insolvency. While some readers took my words of caution to heart, many did not. This week they learned that analyzing battery and electric vehicle companies through rose colored glasses is a great way to end up with a stock that's listed on the Pink Sheets. While I generally like to be right, I hate being this right.

I wonder how the DOE feels about that $118.5 million ARRA Battery Manufacturing Grant they gave Ener1 in August of 2009.

My graph for this week is courtesy of Lux Research and appeared in their recent report "Using Partnerships to Stay Afloat in the Electric Vehicle Storm." The graph is particularly instructive because it overlays their forecasts for the electric vehicle and lithium-ion battery markets in a single graph.

The yellow lines represent total demand for lithium-ion batteries in automotive applications through 2020 using three different oil price scenarios. The blue shaded area represents the total planned production capacity of the global lithium-ion battery industry for the same period. The inescapable conclusions are that (1) without $200 oil, growth in electric vehicle sales will be tepid at best and certainly not robust enough to justify nosebleed market capitalizations for companies like Tesla, and (2) the glut of lithium-ion battery manufacturing capacity will be a crushing burden for all but the most efficient and financially sound battery manufacturers.

While Pike Research recently reported that demonstration projects have deployed 538 MW of lithium-ion based storage on the grid, all of the facilities I've read about report power based on a 15 minute discharge. That means the demonstration projects have used about 135 MWh of batteries to date, or less than 1% of the expected annual capacity glut. While grid-based storage may have significant long-term potential, it's not a big enough short-term opportunity to make a difference.

The takeaway for investors who are willing to remove their rose colored glasses is that the industry leaders in the electric vehicle and lithium-ion battery sectors are run by imbeciles who really mean it and their companies are doomed to underperform the market for years. Molly Ringwald was Pretty in Pink, but it's an ugly color for stock listings

Little more than three years began I warns readers that Ener1 (HEVV.)(PK) was a disaster in the making. More have my notes strident, if Ener1 is a significant venture capital investments in th! NK engines to strengthen their strategic partnership and keep a battery supply contract, which was endangered by th! NK insolvency. While some readers my words of caution to heart began, many do not. They learned this week that the analysis of the battery and electric vehicle is through rose colored glasses a great way to end up with a stock that is listed in the pink sheets. While I generally may be true, I hate this right.

I wonder how the DOE on this $ 118.5 million feels ARRA battery manufacturing grant she gave Ener1 in August 2009.

My chart for this week is courtesy of Lux Research, and appeared in their recent report "using partnerships stay afloat in the electric vehicle storm." The diagram is particularly instructive because it overshadowed their predictions for the electric vehicle and lithium battery markets in a single chart.

The yellow lines represent the demand for lithium-ion batteries in automotive applications by 2020 with three different oil price scenarios. Blue shaded part represents the planned production capacity of industry of global lithium ion battery for the same period. The inevitable conclusions are (1) excluding $200 oil, electric vehicle sales are lukewarm at best and certainly not robust enough, to nosebleed market capitalization for companies like Tesla, and (2) the tide of lithium-ion battery, the production capacity is a heavy burden for all but the most efficient and to justify financially sound manufacturer battery.

During Pike research recently reported that demonstration projects, 538 have deployed MW lithium ion-based storage on the grid, all the facilities I, the report on the basis of 15 minutes discharge read about the power. This means that the demonstration projects about 135 MWh batteries to date, or less than 1% of the expected annual capacity used glut have. Grid based storage have long-term potential, is not a large enough short-term way to make a difference.

The food for investors who are ready to remove their rose-coloured glasses is that the industry leader in the electric vehicle and lithium-ion battery run by idiots who really mean it and are their businesses to damn, exceed the market for years. Molly Ringwald was pretty in pink, but it's an ugly color for has offers

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