It is cold and my car is buried in the snow; Is global warming really happening?

For years, climate contrarians have pointed to snowfall and cold weather to question the scientific reality of human-induced climate change.

Such misinformation obscures the work scientists are doing to figure out just how climate change is affecting weather patterns year-round.

Understanding what scientists know about these effects can help us adapt. And, if we reduce the emissions that are driving climate change, we can dramatically reduce the pace of change and better prepare for the consequences in the future.

What Is the Relationship Between Weather and Climate?

Weather is what’s happening outside the door right now; today a snowstorm or a thunderstorm is approaching. Climate, on the other hand, is the pattern of weather measured over decades.

NASA and NOAA plus research centers around the world track the global average temperature, and all conclude that Earth is warming. In fact, the past decade has been found to be the hottest since scientists started recording reliable data in the 1880s. These rising temperatures are caused primarily by anincrease of heat-trapping emissions in the atmosphere created when we burn coal, oil, and gas to generate electricity, drive our cars, and fuel our businesses.

Hotter air around the globe causes more moisture to be held in the air than in prior seasons. When storms occur, this added moisture can fuel heavier precipitation in the form of more intense rain or snow.

At the same time, because less of a region’s precipitation is falling in light storms and more of it in heavy storms, the risks of drought and wildfire are also greater. Ironically, higher air temperatures tend to produce intense drought periods punctuated by heavy floods, often in the same region.

These kinds of disasters may become a normal pattern in our everyday weather as levels of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere continue to rise.

The United States is already experiencing more intense rain and snowstorms. The amount of rain or snow falling in the heaviest one percent of storms has risen nearly 20 percent, averaged nationally — almost three times the rate of increase in total precipitation between 1958 and 2007.

Some regions of the country have seen as much as a 67 percent increase in the amount of rain or snow falling in the heaviest storms — and an updated version of this figure from the draft National Climate Assessment suggests this increase may have risen to 74 percent between 1958 and 2011.

Overall, it’s warming, but we still have cold winter weather.

The seasons we experience are a result of the Earth’s tilted axis as it revolves around the Sun. During the North American winter, our hemisphere is tilted away from the Sun and its light hits us at a different angle, making temperatures lower.

While climate change won’t have any impact on Earth’s tilt, it is significantly shifting temperatures and causing spring weather to arrive earlier than it used to. Overall, spring weather arrives 10 days earlier than it used to, on average. “Spring creep" is something scientists projected would happen as the globe continues to warm.

The Arctic Connection: A Look at Recent North American Winters

Winters have generally been warming faster than other seasons in the United States and recent research indicates that climate change is disrupting the Arctic and ice around the North Pole.

The Arctic summer sea ice extent broke all records during the end of the 2012 sea ice melt season. Some researchers are pointing to a complex interplay between Arctic sea ice decline, ocean patterns, upper winds, and the shifting shape of the jet stream that could lead to extreme weather in various portions of northern mid-latitudes — such that some places get tons of snow repeatedly and others are unseasonably warm.

In the Arctic, frigid air is typically trapped in a tight loop known as the polar vortex. This super-chilled air is not only cold, it also tends to have low barometric pressure compared to the air outside the vortex. The surrounding high-pressure zones push in on the vortex from all sides so the cold air is essentially "fenced in" above the Arctic, where it belongs.

As the Arctic region warms faster than most other places, however, the Arctic sea ice melts more rapidly and for longer periods each year, and is unable to replenish itself in the briefer, warmer winter season. This can destabilize the polar vortex and raises the barometric pressure within it.

For two winter seasons (2009/2010 and 2010/2011), the polar vortex was notably unstable. In addition, another measurement of barometric pressure — the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) — was in negative mode, weakening part of the barometric pressure "fence" around the polar vortex. This instability allows the cold Artic air to break free and flow southward, where it collides with warmer, moisture-laden air. This collision can produce severe winter weather in some regions and leave milder conditions in other parts of the northern hemisphere.

The winter of 2009/2010 recorded the second lowest negative phase of the NAO since the 1970s, which helps to explain the record snowfalls across the northeastern United States. The 2010/2011 winter also trended toward a strong negative phase.

During the 2011/2012 winter, there was a shift in the position of the jet stream, which separates cold arctic air from warmer air. Typically New England, the Great Lakes, and parts of the Great Plains sit north of the jet stream and remain cold in the winter season. However, the 2011/2012 winter jet stream position meant these regions were south of it for most of the winter, which helped produce the fourth warmest U.S. winter on record.

The lack of snowfall and snowpack for the winter of 2011/2012 and the following spring was a precursor to the large drought episode that impacted two-thirds of the nation during the summer and autumn of 2012.

In the following winter of 2012/2013, the polar vortex was more stable, with the NAO in December and January around neutral, and moderately high in February. The weather systems were not dominated by the polar vortex but equally influenced by several other oceanic and atmospheric drivers, including the Pacific North American pattern and the Arctic Oscillation.

Even though hundreds of monthly precipitation records were broken across the United States in February 2013, the winter of 2012/2013 was characterized by a complex interplay of atmospheric drivers, with no single factor dominating the storm tracks and the broader scale circulation.

The North American winter of 2013/2014 is shaping up to be a complex interplay among the upper atmosphere circulation over North America and the ocean conditions in the East and North Pacific with other factors playing a minor role according to November patterns. December 2013 data are still being analyzed; preliminary indicators suggest that the early season snows that obscured football games played in the Eastern U.S. and caused transportation disruptions in early December were in part linked with a deep penetration of the jet stream over the center of North America.

Scientists are looking into how the jet stream pattern shifts in recent years have influenced where winter sets in hardest in the Northern Hemisphere, though it’s not clear how much impact this trend will have in the future, especially as the Arctic ice continues to lose mass.

It’s Not Too Late

The choices we make today can help determine what our climate will be like in the future. Putting a limit on heat-trapping emissions, encouraging the use of healthier, cleaner energy technologies, and increasing our energy efficiency are all ways to help us to avert the worst potential consequences of global warming, no matter what the season.

This article was originally published on the Union of Concerned Scientists and was republished with permission.

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Cleantech Investments A Mixed Bag in 2Q13, But VCs Are Warming Up To Solar

New Hampshire, USA -- Investments in the renewable energy sector were a mixed bag during the second quarter of 2013, according to a trio of analyst reports and many of the same trends we've seen lately persist: the U.S. and Asia-Pacific regions were more active, and downstream activity continues to intensify.

Taking the broadest view, Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) tallies $53.1 billion in global clean energy investments in 2Q13, up 22 percent from the prior quarter, though down about 16 percent from a year ago. An upswing in investments in the U.S. and China was offset by declines in Europe and globally overall: China was the biggest cleantech investor at $13.8 billion, with the U.S. at $9.5 billion, while investments in Germany and the U.K. fell precipitously from a year ago (to $1.9 billion and $1.7 billion, respectively). South Africa surprised analysts with $2.8 billion in 2Q13 cleantech investments, "up from almost nothing" in the first three months of 2013. Biggest beneficiaries of more financing were wind and solar projects, especially utility-scale ones. Another metric: asset finance was split roughly 70/30 between domestic and cross-border investments. (Here's a video summing up the BNEF cleantech investment findings.)

The Cleantech Group, meanwhile, cites $1.76 billion specifically in global cleantech venture investments in 2Q13, a 56 percent surge from 1Q13, though the number of total deals was off from 1Q13's record high (214 vs. 246). North American venture investments leaped 74 percent to $1.25 billion, while the Asia-Pacific totaled $267 million -- far more money than in 1Q13 for the same number of deals -- and Europe saw less activity in both dollars and deals. Energy efficiency companies secured the most cleantech funding ($378 million), followed by biofuels/biochemicals ($231 million) and solar ($170 million). Bloom Energy (fuel cells), Intrexon (biotech), Skyonic (carbon capture/reuse), China XEMC (wind turbine components), Hefei (solar projects), Blu Homes (energy efficient homes), View (nee Soladigm, energy-efficient glass), Aligned Energy (energy-efficient data centers), and Lampris (renewable energy).

And narrowing even further to just the solar sector, Mercom Capital reports VC investments increased in dollar amounts in 2Q13 from the prior quarter ($189 million vs. $126 million) but the number of deals was down (19 vs. 26), suggesting that investors are interested in the sector but are increasingly picky. Top fundraisers were Chinese solar developer Hefei Golden Sun (raising $69 million) and Clean Power Finance ($42 million), with three other investments coming in between $10-$15 million. Most of the funding momentum continues to head downstream: third-party solar plays topped another record $1.33 billion in publicly-announced residential and commercial solar project funds -- already on par with what was raised during all of 2012. And large-scale project funding totaled $2.94 billion, up from $1.77 billion in 1Q13, including a record $1 billion solar bond offering by MidAmerican Energy subsidiary Solar Star Funding. Another interesting numerical nugget from Mercom: Chinese banks have pledged $53 billion to date in loans, credit facilities, and other types of debt agreements.

Know When to Hold 'Em...

Conversations with startups and a panel session at last week's Intersolar North America pointed to renewed interest from the VC community to put money into solar again, according to Fatima Toor, senior analyst at Lux Research. "Certainly the money going downstream is much more significant, but the fact is there's general interest."

What's been happening for several quarters now, points out Raj Prabhu, managing partner at Mercom Capital, is that funding activity has been below par and money's still tight -- take out that big Hefei deal and the solar sector activity was basically flat in 2Q13, he notes. Companies further downstream, including projects, continue to be the most active funding areas compared with more upstream manufacturing-centric ones. "After all the money that went into thin-film, CSP, CPV companies with no returns, VCs are very, very skeptical," he said.

Solar VC Funding, 2Q13. Credit: Mercom Capital Group LLC

Nevertheless, "when there's a unique technology it still gets funded," he said, citing recent examples in Solexel and Scifiniti. The central message is that investor insterest lies in technologies that are not new and unique, but rather ones that "can improve on existing technology and efficiency a little bit, cut costs here or there, and improve processes," he said. "These are the types we're seeing so far." Lately, for example, he's been seeing more activity in high-efficiency solar panels (specifically monocrystalline silicon tech) and an increased focus on commercial and residential installations.

One positive indicator is that more financial institutions and investment groups are getting involved in solar project acquisitions, because of the calculated returns. "Solar has reached the point in the last 12 months or so where investors do feel it's safe enough, especially institutional investors, and expect a healthy return," he said. He's also seeing more use of bonds to finance projects, which "shows some maturity for solar as an asset class." With bond interest above 5 percent, "where can you park your money right now in the U.S. and get five-plus percent? You can't even get a percent for a CD," Praghu said. With money abundantly available thanks to friendlier federal policies, "5 percent looks like a really good bet, with a lower risk profile," he said.

... And Know When to Fold 'Em

Part of the mindset of an investor is knowing how to identify and ride an early wave of success -- and knowing when to get off the ride. In the case of the boon in solar third-party funding, "that's what a lot of people are wondering," Prabhu said. The third-party business model, which relies heavily on vendors taking the tax credits, has some fundamental uncertainty once the 30 percent investment tax credit (ITC) times out in 2016. And if prices continue to come down, will solar become so attractive that direct ownership makes more sense than leasing? As investors, particularly those who look ahead to annual tax obligations, start to look at solar investments, the thinking around these types of concerns "has to evolve pretty soon," he said.

One last data point Prabhu points out: bankruptcies and insolvencies are actually dropping, roughly half what they were at this time a year ago. "That's what I look at when I tell people, 'we're a little better off than where we were,'" he said. "But [we're] not completely off the hook."

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Shale gas seen as global warming factor

(ITHACA, n.y., April 12, UPI)-natural gas from shale formations a larger greenhouse gas footprint than conventional gas, oil and coal over a period of 20 years has, say US researchers.

This Footprint--in the form of methane emissions-the question is the use of gas extracted from shale, often as a climate-friendly alternative to fossil fuels promoted.

Researchers at Cornell University, gas footprint evaluated the greenhouse gas by high-volume hydraulic splitters slate Formationen--often referred to as "Fracking"- and estimated methane emissions created by the process won.

You calculated the lifetime of the average of a shale gas well, 4 to 8% of the total production of the fountain into the atmosphere than methane in routine ventilation and equipment leaks, as also with flow-back return occurs liquids during drilling after the fragmentation of the shale formations, an article in the journal climate change letters said.

"The large greenhouse-gas footprint of shale gas undercuts the logic of the use as a fuel bridging decades if the goal is to reduce global warming," said Cornell researcher Robert Howarth. "The complete footprint should be used, plan for alternative energy of futures, which are to take due account of global climate change."

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